As international challenges and crises in Ukraine, Afghanistan, and elsewhere continue to make headlines, top officials have offered their expertise on how governments can move forward, ranging from rethinking current alliances and treaty obligations to repositioning focus. On Feb. 15, Fordham Law’s Center on National Security (CNS) invited John Brennan FCRH ’77, former CIA director and assistant to the president for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and distinguished fellow for global security at CNS, and Ali Soufan, former supervisory special agent with the FBI and founder of the Soufan Center, to discuss key security issues and where we may be headed, both as a country and a globe.
“From Yemen to the South China Sea, Russia to Iran, Afghanistan to Ukraine, the pressure on U.S. foreign policymakers has remained unyielding, complex, and fraught with the instability and suffering caused by migration and climate change, fragility of international bodies and agreements, cyber warfare, and humanitarian crises worldwide,” said CNS Director Karen Greenberg, who moderated the virtual conversation.
All Eyes on Ukraine
An unavoidable topic of discussion was the growing crisis along Ukraine’s border. Prior to Russia’s invasion of the country on Feb. 24, the mobilization of troops along Ukraine’s border had led to weeks of growing geopolitical tension. Earlier that month, the U.S. State Department ordered nearly all embassy staff in Kyiv to evacuate and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan urged Americans living in Ukraine to leave the country on Feb. 11, in anticipation of an outbreak of violence.
“I think [Russian President Vladimir Putin] is looking for a way to continue to push his view that Ukraine cannot go with the West—either on the military front or even on the economic front—and he’ll find ways to continue to harass, harangue, and even try to undermine the democratic processes in Ukraine,” said Brennan on Feb. 15, referring to both Ukraine’s overtures for closer economic and military ties with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Russian government’s response.
“This is [Russia’s] opportunity… to expand their geopolitical interest in the region,” said Soufan. “Otherwise, a lot of [eastern European]countries are going to grow more pro-democracy and pro-Western. … [Putin] thinks that this will probably help Russia exert influence over entities and regions that he believes are a part of the Russian sphere of influence.”
Brennan, who spent time in Kyiv following the Maidan Revolution in 2014, believes that a Russian invasion of Ukraine—which experts say could result in an all-out war in Europe—would be Putin’s “legacy.”
“Thousands and thousands of Ukrainians and Russians would die as a result of this type of invasion… and I think the type of financial sanctions that would be imposed on Russia would have a real hit on Russian people,” Brennan said. “This could really give [Putin] a real black eye over time because it’s going to be a very, very costly military adventure for him.”
The Pivot to Asia
Also of concern was China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy enacted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2013 that invests in nearly 70 countries and international organizations. Brennan voiced his views on the program’s effect on global trade and its use by China to expand its influence across Asia and into Africa and Europe.
“I do think that the Biden administration is very serious about trying to address the totality of the Chinese challenge,” Brenann said. “There are areas where we can deconflict and areas where we can coordinate or collaborate, but I think there’s going to be a fair amount of attention in some of these areas, particularly when it comes to technology.”
“We have a lot of allies—at least 11 countries in the [Asian] region—that want that strategic American leadership in the region [and]want a strategic anchor,” Soufan said.
Realignment in the Middle East
Shifting their focus to the Middle East, both Brennan and Soufan agreed that the United States, despite recent moves by both the Trump and Biden administrations to disentangle the country from its long-standing commitments in the Middle East, should not ignore events in the region, given the potential for future conflict and bloodshed. Brennan identified the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as potential partners in managing unresolved issues.
“Washington, D.C. and the Biden administration, I think, are working with the Emiratis and Saudis to try to soften some of their opposition to [a renewal of]the Iranian [nuclear]deal,” Brennan said. “I’m hoping that there’s going to be continued attention and that the Saudis and Emiratis will try to advance the interest and aspirations of the Palestinian people—not just in terms of what’s going on in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, but … as far as the stability of Jordan, a population of which is more than half Palestinian.”
Brennan added that the United States must also not turn its eyes away from extremist and rebel forces in the region. “When I look at the Middle East now, and I think about just how difficult the environments are in places like Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Iraq,” said Brennan. “I think they’re still very ripe for exploitation by individuals who are going to use whatever rallying cry they can to get people on the bandwagon.”
In the realm of global terrorism, Soufan stressed that the ideologies that led to the development of global terrorist organizations, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, have not disappeared. “You cannot kill a narrative and ideology. The ideology is still rooted there,” Soufan said. “But I think one of the things that has been done correctly by the U.S. is weakening the global leadership of the organizations.”
The humanitarian crisis happening in Afghanistan, following the United States’ withdrawal last summer, is another matter that Brennan argued should remain on the country’s radar. The week prior to the CNS-hosted conversation, the Biden administration had issued an executive order enabling Afghanistan’s central bank to access some of its U.S.-based assets which they had been previously locked out of after the Taliban seized control of the country.
Brennan applauded the move by the Biden administration, but cautioned that a larger response may be needed.
“The humanitarian organizations, the U.N., and others cannot handle the scale of the requirements in Afghanistan,” said Brennan. “Trying to set up a parallel humanitarian support structure with these other organizations is not going to address the needs of the Afghan people.”
While the world watches and waits to see what happens next in these parts of the world, the United States should remain part of the conversation, as Brennan and Soufan concurred by the end of the virtual discussion.
