Climate agreement likely but enforcement uncertain
A global climate agreement among the over 190 nations that participated at the COP21 summit in Paris is on the horizon, Fordham Law Professor Paolo Galizzi said recently, but the pact’s ability to effect the lasting change the scientific community says is necessary to prevent looming climate-driven catastrophe over the next century is more uncertain.
Earlier this week, the United States joined a “high ambition coalition” with 100 other nations expressing common goals: recognition of the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature goal, a pathway to a low-carbon future, updates every five years, and an annual $100 billion financial package for developing countries. China and India—together responsible for 30 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases—are not part of the coalition, raising the prospect that an agreement might fall short of the high ambitions of the United States and allies from the European Union, Africa, and the Caribbean.
As climate negotiations concluded on Friday, other lingering questions centered on what mechanisms, if any, would be installed to hold countries accountable in enforcing measures agreed upon in Paris, who would pay what percentage of the financial package for developing countries to transition to clean energy sources such as wind and solar, and what actions Congress would take to undermine any agreement the Obama administration endorses.
“My biggest concern is there will be an agreement that won’t go as far as it needs to,” Galizzi said. “When you are trying to bring
Paolo Galizzi
190 nations to the table and get them on the same page, sometimes compromise is all you can hope for.”
Galizzi spoke from Ghana, where he is aiding in climate change initiatives in his capacity as Director of the Sustainable Development Legal Initiative at the Leitner Center for International Law and Justice. What happens in Paris, in terms of an agreement, could provide an opportunity for Fordham to expand its work in Africa, helping nations create the legal infrastructure to meet the requirements of a new climate deal.
African leaders, including Ghana President John Dramani Mahama, have actively supported a climate deal and, along with Pope Francis, have championed the cause of climate justice as a means to adapt to and mitigate the environmental, economic, and national security crises climate change could provoke, Galizzi said.
Africa’s role in causing climate change via greenhouse gases is negligible, Galizzi noted, but its citizens face potentially severe consequences associated with rising temperatures, including famine from drought and displacement due to coastal erosion. Ghana’s leadership grasps the high stakes, Galizzi said, but the country’s citizens see ongoing energy shortages as a more pressing concern.
How to develop and pay for renewable energy resources without crippling development in poorer countries remains a major missing piece in the climate change puzzle. However, the recent terror attacks in Paris as well as the Syrian refugee crisis have made the connection between national security and climate change increasingly evident, providing more of an impetus for governments and private citizens to aid developing countries with money for clean energy programs.
Secretary of State John Kerry announced this week the United States would contribute $800 million per year by 2020 for vulnerable countries to adapt to climate impacts. It remains uncertain what percentage of the $100 billion proposal the United States would contribute to developing countries for greenhouse gas reduction.
Perhaps no country exemplifies the dilemma between growth and the environment more than India. The world’s second-most populous nation made news early in the COP21 aligning with France in an international solar alliance proposal. Still, India has not publicly announced support for a 1.5-degree Celsius target. Futhermore, its renewable energy target for 2030 is just 40 percent, a lackluster figure according to critics, who implore the nation of more than one billion citizens to chart a more ambitious course.
“Their statements go both ways,” Galizzi said. “They have said, ‘We are committed to fighting climate change, but we’re still going to do what we need to do to develop.’ I don’t think India wants to be the country accused of torpedoing an agreement.”
Leaders must be ambitious today and hope technological development allows them to leapfrog projections tomorrow. In the meantime, the Paris summit may provide an influential narrative shift in how nations view opportunities in renewable energy versus polluting energy like oil and coal.
“I hope that we start seeing climate change as an opportunity rather than a cost,” Galizzi said.
–Ray Legendre
